The Real Beginning

For those watching the Presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain, you may have been just as confused as I have been when poll numbers as recently as a week ago had the two candidates at a virtual tie. My instincts told me that Obama should have a solid lead over McCain. All the evidence seemed to point to that conclusion. An overwhelming majority of American’s are unhappy with the policies of the current Bush Administration, which isn’t a good thing for the Republican Party and John McCain’s chances at winning the election in November.

More specifically, most American’s do not approve of the war in Iraq, which McCain wishes to continue. High oil prices and a recessing economy don’t bear well for McCain either. McCain has admitted he is not that strong when it comes to managing the economy. Also, many people blame those problems on the current administration, and many of McCain’s policies are closely linked to that of the Bush Administration. Finally, McCain has his own problems inside the Republican Party. He is viewed by many as being too close to the middle, which weakens his support by the Republican base. With all of this going against John McCain, one would think Obama who is to bring ‘change’ should have a sizable lead, which wasn’t the case.

According to a new poll by Newsweek, Obama has finally got the bounce he has been looking for. The poll shows Obama opening up a substantial 15-point lead over McCain (51 to 36) heading into November. Now that the Democratic Primary’s are over and Hillary Clinton has endorsed Obama it is evident that support is growing for Obama and the party is uniting.

The poll also shows a party identification lead for Democrats, with 55% of voters calling themselves Democrats while only 36% of voters consider themselves Republicans. This result does not come as a surprise to me as many people are unhappy with the current Bush Administration, which has greatly diminished the reputation of the party.

We all know its a long way to November and things can easily change. Previous Presidential candidates have had substantial leads in early polling but did not go on to win the election. However if you look at the current situation and how well Obama is running his campaign, it seems hard for me to believe that McCain can turn things around in time to win the election in November.